Putin's peak leverage

Russian President Putin is in a unique position, with peak leverage over the West and NATO. That Putin is pushing now for an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and a complete rejection of Ukraine’s future membership to the alliance is no coincidence; the stars have aligned for the Russian leader. Europe is dependent on Russian imports of natural gas and, heading into the deepest depths of winter, Europe finds its gas storage utilization levels well below average and gas prices historically high. Ukraine is governed by a former comedian, Mr. Zelensky, who is inexperienced and with whom Putin refuses to have a dialogue. President Biden is pre-occupied with rising inflation, falling approval ratings, and the upcoming mid-term elections. Boris Johnson is most likely in his final days in office, battling Partygate. And add to that, there is no Angela Merkel to step in and mediate on behalf of the EU. This final point should not be overlooked; Merkel spoke Russian and had a good relationship with Putin. There was mutual respect. We are not even two months from her departure and there is a full-blown crisis with Russia. Putin may never have this much leverage again, and he is keenly aware of that. If he is finally to stop NATO’s expansion to Russia’s doorstep, it is now, whether by force or diplomacy. Unfortunately he is not bothered by which path the crisis takes.